The recap of the closed trades since the Sunday open are below. Generally speaking, things went pretty well – total so far is +221 pips.
USD shorts right off the Asian open were the best bet. Commodities were off across the board but NZD and AUD still managed to do some damage. CAD was surprisingly stable in the face of lower oil. Things will start to get tricky the closer we get to Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. I’ll likely stick to fast trades. Volatility may also slow down a bit.
I still like longs on the GBP/Commodity currencies (possibly Euro crosses too – assuming yields stay stable). I’ll post any new trades as they come. Given that GBP/USD regained 1.4810s, I think it will likely try to challenge 1.4890s/1.4900 (see #MorningCharts post from today). Euro is likely capped at 1.0660s pre-FOMC. .7450s on NZD/USD should also act as strong resistance. RBA minutes is up and the consensus is that the dovish tone will send AUD lower (we shall see).
Trade #70, long GBP/JPY from 179.30, hit target of 179.95 for +65 pips.
Trade #69, long #GBP/NZD from 2.0133, stopped out at 2.0080 for -53 pips.
Trade #68, Long AUD/USD from .7630, closed early at .7676 (4 pips ahead of target) for +46 pips. A tweet was sent live during the closing of the trade.
Trade #67, short USD/NOK from 2.21, was stopped out at 2.25 for what we could call roughly minus 40 pips. Given lot size for this trade, this is what would make sense otherwise it distorts the pip count. Another example is USD/MXN – when it moves from 15.30 to 15.40, you can’t call that 1,000 pips and then put it next to 1,000 pips on, say, AUD/USD.
Trade #66, long GBP/AUD from 1.9333, was stopped at 1.9290 for – 43 pips.
Trade #65, short USDTRY from 2.6335, hit target of 2.61 for what we call +23 pips (same rationale used with USD/NOK).
Trade #64, long GBP/USD from 1.4742, hit target of 1.4810 for +68 pips.
Trade #63, long NZD/USD from .7324, hit target of .7390 for +66 pips.
Trade #61, long EUR/USD from 1.0471, hit target of 1.0560 for +89 pips.
Trade # 62, short USD/CAD from 1.2791 is still in progress.